REC trading for the month of July 2013 concluded Today. As was the case last month, Solar RECs continue to langiush at the bottom with the solar RECs trading at their floor price for the second month in succession. It is very likely that the solar RECs would continue to trade at the floor price as the supply continues to grow much faster than the demand which for the first time has seen a month on month growth. The non-solar REC segment however saw some interesting growth with buy bids as well as volume traded increasing by an astonishing 122% over the previous month.
Non-Solar RECs
The non-solar REC segment continues to hold fort with no significant changes in the market dynamics. The number of buy bids increased by a huge number resulting in an increase of about 122% compared to last month’s numbers with the total volume traded increasing in tandem by about 122%. The number of sell bids too increased by about 16% narrowing the supply-demand gulf ever so slightly. The non-solar REC price remains at the base price of Rs. 1500 per REC both at the IEX and PXIL.
Solar-RECs
The demand for solar-RECs increased by about 27% compared to last month with the total volume traded increasing by 27% . The supply however continues to grow with the total volume available for sale increasing by about 72% widening the gap between the number of certificates available for sale and those being purchased. With more solar-REC based projects on the horizon, the gap will continue to grow unless there is a significant demand spike which looks unlikely. The price of the solar RECs remains at the floor price for the second month running, trading at Rs. 9300 on both IEX and PXIL.
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If regulations and penal provisions are not imposed on non-fulfilling of RPO obligations, future of REC shall remain in dark. Wherein sellers shall have no option, but to accumulate REC with them. Regulatory must take action.
Yogesh Birla
Director
Birla Wealth & Project Management Co.
It is indeed a dismal situation for renewable energy generators who have opted for the REC in hope of getting higher revenues from their renewable energy projects. I agree that unless compliance on the RPO of various entities is enforced, REC market will continue to see over supply and lower demand.
Even though you have tried to look at the silver lining by comparing the REC sales figures with those of last month, the fact remains that less than 5% of the Non-Solar RECs for sale were actually sold. The corresponding figure for solar RECs though better (15%+), still means that close to 85% of the solar RECs too remain unsold. Not sure how long the project developers can sustain this as principal and interest payments on project loans would continue to pile up.
Also, with the over supply and lack of demand, there seems to be a bleak chance of getting a better price than the floor price mandated.
Nikhil Jaipurkar
SCG Hydro